Bitcoin (BTC) is once again struggling to break above the critical $120,000 resistance level, according to technical analysts and on-chain data providers. The cryptocurrency, which has shown signs of consolidation in recent weeks, now faces potential downside risks before any significant breakout can materialize.
Financial analyst Christopher Lewis noted that the $120,000 barrier remains firm as Bitcoin’s bullish momentum softens amid low trading volumes. He pointed to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a key support indicator, currently racing toward the price zone.
“We’re likely to see Bitcoin continue sideways, with dips possibly attracting buyers,” said Lewis in his July 30 report.
Glassnode Price support weak between $110K–$115K
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has identified a critical cost basis gap in Bitcoin’s price structure. Their latest Week Onchain report warns that BTC could face a 7% dip to $110,000, where significant short-term holder (STH) support exists.
Key insights from the report:
- Short-term holders (those holding BTC less than 155 days) are providing near-term price support.
- A low-transaction “air gap” exists between $115,000 and $110,000.
- This gap could act like a “gravitational pull,” especially if BTC sees further selling pressure.
Glassnode’s heatmap of cost-basis distribution shows a high concentration of buyer interest between $117K and $122K, suggesting many recent investors entered during this rally phase.
“Not all air-gaps must be filled, but the lack of support below current prices is a risk to watch,” the report states.
Breakout target
Despite near-term weakness, bullish forecasts remain if Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $120K ceiling. Analysts from both Glassnode and FX Empire believe a confirmed breakout could send BTC toward the $130,000 level, with the potential to test the $141,000 zone, marked by Glassnode as the next major resistance (+2σ standard deviation band).
Potential BTC price levels to watch:
- Support: $110,000 (hard floor)
- Resistance: $120,000 (current barrier)
- Breakout zone: $130,000–$141,000
Short-term holders may begin profit-taking near the $140K mark, potentially slowing upward momentum.
Market conditions
Wall Street’s summer lull is contributing to reduced market activity. This lower volume environment makes BTC more vulnerable to sharp intraday moves. However, Bitcoin’s support from institutional ETFs remains a key bullish factor.
“As long as Wall Street interest in Bitcoin ETFs persists, it provides a strong base for long-term buyers,” says Lewis.
Caution remains around speculative behavior, with analysts warning that any significant move must be supported by trading volume and market confirmation.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook – July 2025
| Indicator | Value / Status |
|---|---|
| Current Price | ~$119,800 |
| Resistance Level | $120,000 |
| Support Zone | $110,000–$115,000 |
| Breakout Target | $130,000–$141,000 |
| Short-Term Holder Activity | Dominating current support |
| Institutional ETF Interest | Strong and ongoing |
What it means for investors
Crypto traders should watch the $120K level closely. If BTC fails to break out soon, a retest of $110K could occur. For now, dips might offer buy-in opportunities, but traders should monitor volume, ETF flows, and macroeconomic events.
Glassnode advises caution, especially for new entrants, as volatility may increase if the support gap is tested.
